Don't Overthink It; Apple's Vision Pro Will Be Huge.
More people want augmented reality than you might think.
At the time of writing this, I do not own any shares of Apple AAPL 0.00%↑.
Introducing… Apple Vision Pro
During their World Wide Developers Conference on June 5, 2023, Apple introduced Vision Pro to the world, their $3,499 virtual reality/augmented reality headset. This announcement was met with mixed reviews, with many feeling the price tag is more than most are willing to pay. What I think these people are failing to realize is this current form of the Vision Pro doesn’t matter, but what this product will be in 10 years will be extraordinary.
Virtual and augmented reality have lost any excitement surrounding them due to the artificial intelligence boom, but companies such as Meta and Apple are still betting on these headsets. Remember the Metaverse? Well that’s virtual reality, and that is half of what we are talking about here. Apple’s Vision Pro is more of an augmented reality headset—it takes parts of a virtual world and puts them in your real world surroundings. While these “goggles” look ridiculous now and seem overpriced, I believe these will be much bigger and more important than you think.
Out-Metaversing Meta
The biggest difference, and arguably the most important, between the Vision Pro and Meta’s Quest are the use of controllers. Apple’s Vision Pro is completely controlled by your hands and voice, while the Quest still requires controllers. This leads Meta’s line of headsets to be seen as a gimmicky gaming machine—one that doesn’t hold any real professional value. This can also be seen in the marketing videos for their headsets, often geared towards gaming. Apple, on the other hand, showcases the Vision Pro’s ability to make your home your office, be more productive, and immerse yourself into your work or relaxation.
I do believe Apple’s headset, in its current form, can and will be used in a professional setting. Letting your landscape become your desktop is a powerful tool that I am sure will be taken advantage of. Jobs that require modeling can use these headsets to see their work in a real landscape, brainstorming can become intertwined with the surrounding environment. Let’s also not forget this will all be control with our hands. No controllers, just our hands. Nothing is more intuitive than using our hands. This is where I believe Apple leaves the Quest in the dust.
I don’t believe the “Metaverse” will be a collaborative space for professionals to get work done, rather it will be a sort of “hub” for video gaming. This is where the Apple Vision Pro steps in and will succeed. If it can become a tool for work, entertainment, and creativity, then it will have tremendous power. However, I believe Apple has a bigger goal in mind.
Apple’s Real Goal for Vision Pro
Remember Google Glass? Probably not. Below is an image of Google Glass, a pair of classes that could send you some basic notifications and take a picture. It was a gimmick, and mostly useless, but it had lofty goals. Apple wants Vision Pro to be the form factor of Glass, but have the power of their current goggle design, likely even more powerful. Apple wants to have the entire internet in a pair of glasses. Need to open a new Safari tab while you’re walking down the street? You bet. That kind of dystopian, science-fiction type stuff. Full immersion into the internet is not far off.
Who Wants This?
Who would want to be immersed in the internet all day anyway? Hate to break it to you, but it’s probably a lot more people than you think:
On average, children ages 8-18 spend more than 7.5 hours a day on entertainment media.
Phone usage is up 60-80% when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
In 2022, the average person spent over 2 and a half hours on social media every single day.
The average screen time in the United States is over 7 hours, with time split between phone and computers/gaming devices.
Now, let’s ask the same question: “Who would want to be immersed in the internet all day anyway?” Well, it seems like most people would, and already are. If someone is already glued to their screens all day, why not have the screens right in front of their eyes, interacting with the real world? Nobody knew they needed this full immersion until now. Just like nobody thought they needed a smartphone before the iPhone, and how nobody thought they needed a PC before the Macintosh.
At this point I would like to make clear this is not the future I want, and I am sure many of you feel the same way. The problem is this is the one we are heading towards.
In Perfect Harmony…
In an ideal world, these two products could live in perfect harmony. Meta could fulfill their Metaverse mission with Quest and make it a machine for gaming and entertainment, while Apple’s Vision Pro is the machine for professionals, along with basic entertainment capabilities. This would suit both their strengths as they stand, and would likely maximize each of their market shares.
The problem is we don’t live in an ideal world. Meta will attempt to mimic Apple, making a product marketed towards professionals, along with continuing their gaming push. To achieve a professional, they will have to drop the controllers (as I mentioned before), and likely partner with Microsoft to build in features from Windows. On the flip side, I doubt Apple will try to get into any gaming, as they really never have on their platforms. I predict Meta then spreads its headset’s capabilities too thin, leading the higher-end professional users to use Apple’s headset.
We Know Nothing
This VR/AR thing is new and likely ways away from mass adoption. Right now everything is speculation. Nobody knows how many units the Vision Pro will sell in its first year, and it likely doesn’t matter. The original iPhone only sold 1.4 million units in its first year, with many calling it a failure, claiming smartphones wouldn’t catch on. Over 232 million iPhones were sold in 2022. For a good laugh, here is a blog post discussing why the iPhone would fail, written in 2007. My favorite excerpt from this blog post:
This is a good history lesson on innovation. When you criticize something new (or something Apple is doing, really), you often sound like an idiot in the future. Nobody thought we’d be typing on a screen 15 years ago, just like nobody thinks we will be wearing these headsets today. While not everyone will be an early adopter, Apple is rarely wrong, and if they are betting these things will be huge in 15 years, I am inclined to believe them.
Great summary, thanks!
I have another theory which I believe means it'll be a success. And that's timing.
The time period between the original iPhone release and Google Glasses was about 3/4 years, if you take into account when iPhones became mainstream. The desire, motivation and perhaps subconscious 'head space' for something new, different and innovative was lacking at the time.
The time round, the gap has been sizeable since a major (physical) tech innovation. My bet is sales will be pretty huge from day 1!
Great write up. My conviction on the headset’s future is not as strong as yours although I think it will be a great tool for specific individuals. I will wait to be proven wrong that it is for the masses.